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What You Think

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Anthony The Koala
13 May 2020 - 12:57am
Alan interviewed Prof. Peter Nilsson of Lund University Sweden lauding Sweden's policies on covid19 on 2GB, 12-05-2020.

Reiterating a comment I made earlier on this site if Australia implemented covid19 policies of other countries and if other countries implemented Australia's policy.

If Australia implemented Sweden's policies, we'd have 8365 deaths compared to 97.

Conversely if Sweden implemented Australia's policies, they'd have 38 deaths instead of 3313.

While there is nothing wrong with broadcaster Alan Jones describing the incidents or mortalities of a disease in parts per million, the percentages are confusing and a shift in the decimal point of the parts per million computation seem insignificant.

The other part I don't like is that you cannot compare "apples with oranges". Applying this comparison, you cannot compare the incidence of flu deaths with covid19 deaths. Yes both diseases are contagious. Many survivors of covid19 say it is worse than the flu.

Both policies of Sweden and Australia have had a significant decrease in the mortality rate. In the early days of the covid19 epidemic, epidemiologists in Australia reported infections in the order of 1.5 million. Why 1.5 million? While the epidemiologists did not say when this would occur, it is known that uncontrolled spread follows an exponential equation.

Anybody with a knowledge of year 12 mathematics and/or first year university statistics can apply this knowledge and develop the models based on data available from site covid19data.com.au. The data to calculate the model is based on a particular state's daily incidents of infection. I chose NSW's.

I will not publish my models and or calculations. Suffice to say that if there were no policies to control the spread of a disease, you'd be shocked at the daily incidents of infection for NSW. Thankfully after the 26th March 2020, the policies for incidents of infection in NSW clearly indicated a linear trend downwards.

Consequently, if there were no policies to control the spread of infection, our health system would not be able to cope with the incidents of infections especially if the patients required treatment. That is true if there were no policies in controlling the spread of the disease.

Clearly from the information, I am lucky to be living in Australia. The policies and societal mores of one country in establishing how to "live/cope/control with" the covid19 virus explain why the methods of controlling the spread of the virus produce different results.

I have made my point elsewhere on this site of the creeping utilitarianistic attitude which places economics above the number of lives lost. The deceased can't come back and no-one will have on their tombstone or plaque, "..in loving memory of 'person' who died to put her/his life for the economy...". Economies can come back though.

Now as Australia proceeds with rebuilding the economy, let's hope and pray that there are no spikes in incidents of infection and that we are not overwhelmed by too many spikes.

It is true that Alan Jones is one of the greatest broadcasters in Australia. His analysis and research on topics is thorough and consistent.

However in this case for arguing for Sweden's implementation of controlling the spread of the covid-19 disease are incorrect.

In addition, Alan's criticism of mathematical modelling throughout his broadcasting career is not correct. It is true that the model is only as good as the assumptions built into a model. The adage is garbage in garbage out. But mathematical modelling has been available since the invention of the calculus by Newton and Leibniz. Mathematical modelling also applies to statistical modelling used by epidemiologists as a planning tool and to test whether medicines are efficacious.

Like the PM and Premiers who relied on the experts, Alan had to rely on experts in order to reduce his workload. I wish Alan Jones good health.

Thank you,
Anthony of analytical Belfield

Calculations:
Based on data as at 13-05-2020 at 0000.
If Australia adopted the Sweden's covid-19 policies:
No deaths = pop(Aus)/pop(UK)*deaths(Sweden) = 25499884/10099265*3313 = 8365

If Sweden adopted Australia's covid-19 policies
No deaths = pop(Sweden)/pop(Aus)*deaths(Aus) = 10099265/25499884*97 = 38


Data:
Country, pop, density, deaths
Sweden: 10099265, 25, 3313
Australia: 25499884, 3, 97

Source:
https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/population-by-country/
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/?utm_campaign=homeAdUOA?Si
Alan Jones quits 2GB
TonyJWW
12 May 2020 - 10:54am
As someone who is not, and never has, worked in radio, but has a life long interest in the industry I have a genuine question: It's easy to see how the Covid pandemic has affected advertising in print media (newspapers are shrinking before our eyes) but I can't see how it has affected radio and television. There has certainly been no reduction in the number of and length of ad breaks so why are media organisations saying their revenue has been impacted? Ace Radio makes some cuts as COVID19 cuts deep into revenue
Tommy
11 May 2020 - 1:57pm
I enjoy your emails as a radio station operator myself but have to say that P Bryson's "guide" on advertising 1-3 is garbage. It is based on downturns and recessions not mass closures.

Asking an advertisier to continue when they can't do business will simply drive them away in the future. supporting them, freezing their contracts and taking it like a man, at a cost to you.. is a far better business plan.

Also using local news to promote previous good clients for free will keep you in good standing too.

I rarely if ever respond to posts, but hers were total sales spiel BS.
Radio Sales in the Time of Coronavirus - PART 3
Anthony The Koala
11 May 2020 - 2:27am
Let's not forget the article in this site recently about Spotify's losses when the entity is not being able to attract subscribers to its "premium" services. I commented on whether Spotify has deep pockets like Amazon to continue in the future.

Unlike Spotify's streaming, our FTA commercial and ABC radio and tv services especially live TV and spoken word broadcasts are immediate and responsive to crises such as the covid-19 and previously the 2019-2020 east coast conflagration.

The irony in Australia is that as listeners and viewers have increased, revenue across commercial radio and TV networks have fallen resulting in pay cuts, job cuts and other expenditure cuts.

Example article, 6th April https://www.cmo.com.au/article/672516/arn-southern-cross-latest-media-companies-slash-salaries/ . This does not cover the cuts across News Corp, 9Media and Network 7.

Some commentators from "The Australian" and other talk radio shows want cuts to the ABC as some kind of macabre solidarity with the cuts in commercial media.

The cuts to the hierarchical structures in management in the ABC should not be the same as cuts to services to the ABC.

A cut to the ABC services in a time of the covid-19 pandemic is imprudent. But a cut to hierarchical structures and a consolidation of the ABC and SBS may well be warranted.

Thank you,
Anthony of exciting Belfield
Tell Spotify they’re dreaming if they think radio’s dead
Radioman
8 May 2020 - 7:37am
For the Monty Python fans....Ahh I see you have the grant called PING..... The PING program opens for business and regional radio can apply
Anthony The Koala
6 May 2020 - 4:15pm
Reacting to "Spotiless", it appears the users' preference for "Spotify free" over its premium service is like listening to commercial terrestrial radio.

If Spotify's results indicate a loss, how long can this be supported? Does Spotify have investors with deep pockets as Amazon did not make a profit until 2018, https://qz.com/1196256/it-took-amazon-amzn-14-years-to-make-as-much-net-profit-as-it-did-in-the-fourth-quarter-of-2017/ .

During the covid-19 pandemic, people are more likely listening to talk/spoken word/news-talk programs as exemplified by an increase in listenership to 2GB and RN in Canberra.

Thank you,
Anthony of postulating ideas Belfield
Spotify revises earnings outlook for 2020
Anthony The Koala
6 May 2020 - 4:03pm
I want to discuss the CovidSafe and the discussion on radio of the inability to download the CovidSafe app.

I would love to participate in the CovidSafe app as one method for of health authorities being able to finally quash this evil clump of protein.

Many have reported to talkback radio and the comments section of newspapers that their particular phone won't download the app because the phone's operating system is incompatible with the app's minimum operating system.

For example the minimum requirement operating system ('OS') for CovidSafe on an android system is 6.0.

Many people have complained that their reliable three to four year old android phone is incompatible. Their phone's OS and mine included has android version 5.1.1.

For those with Samsung phones operating on android OS versions 5.1.1 it is IMPOSSIBLE to update the OS from 5.1.1 to version 6.0 in the same way that one can update a laptop's OS from Windows 7 to Windows 10.

If for example you do have a Samsung smartphone, and do the following taps: Settings > About Device >Software Update > Update Software Manually. Then you wait, and receive the message "The latest updates have already been installed".

Then when you do the following taps: Settings > About Device > Software Info, you will still see that Android has not updated to version 6.0, but remaining at 5.1.1.

BUT the Australian App developers could have developed CovidSafe for android 5.1. CovidSafe has been based on the application TraceTogether developed by our Singaporean neighbour. TraceTogether has been developed for version 5.1.

Singapore’s version using android 5.1, https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=sg.gov.tech.bluetrace&hl=en_AU

Australia’s version, android 6.0 and up https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=au.gov.health.covidsafe

For Australians, don't download the TraceTogether app because it's programmed to send encrypted data to Singpore's health authorities.

Given that the covid-19 pandemic is recent, I see no problem in a version for android 5.1 because this app was released in 2020.

For the Australian developers of CovidSafe, please make a version for android versions 5.1. These phones are 4G capable and are reliable and many have been sold in the last three to four years.

When you do, I believe that many more owners of android phones with OS version 5.1.1 will download the app and participate in the quashing of this evil clump of complex protein.

Thank you,
Anthony of thinking Belfield
The Theory Behind Conspiracies
Kevin_Robb
4 May 2020 - 10:05pm
To make this app to make any impact it need at least 40% of phone owners to install the app and that is not going to happen. Best they just cancel the entire ill conceived idea. Government We simply DO NOT trust you The Theory Behind Conspiracies
Spotiless
4 May 2020 - 6:18pm
If you read the report it shows they are struggling to attract premium subscribers which are needed to grow revenue. Even at the discounted special premium rate the subscribers are leaving. Big problem.

The claim of "growth over revenue" is a furfy since no investor or company board is going to accept loss after loss after loss.

The current expected loss is EU 250m or 426 million AUD.
Seriously, how long can that go on?
Spotify revises earnings outlook for 2020
Anthony The Koala
2 May 2020 - 1:09pm
In my last comment, I made a typographical error in the formula.

Where I said:
"If Australia adopted a particular country's policy, estimate of deaths in Australia.
Australia's pop/particular country's pop * Australian deaths"

It should say:
"If Australia adopted a particular country's policy, estimate of deaths in Australia.
Australia's pop/particular country's pop * particular country's death rates"

The calculations represent the corrected formula.

Thank you,
Anthony of I am human and make mistakes Belfield


ABC backs Swan's integrity in response to COVID19 related article in The Australian

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