The second survey of metro markets will be released tomorrow by GfK with one thing for certain, it will be as unpredictable as it has ever been.

The only sure thing (relatively speaking) will be that 2GB and ABC 702 will be the number one and two stations in Sydney while 3AW will lead the pack ahead of ABC 774 in Melbourne. 

Almost as certain is that ARN’s Mix102.3 will retain its lead in Adelaide while SCA’s Mix 94.5 will do the same in Perth.

Perhaps on similarly solid ground is the performance of Nova Entertainment’s smoothfm brand which has opened up its own niche and doesn’t compete head to head with anyone but has chipped away at the listener base of several stations to amass a 7+ share in both Sydney and Melbourne. 

In Sydney, it’s a two horse race on the FM band with both horses belonging to ARN. The exciting part, at least for the proud parent company, is which of it’s children will win and who’ll run second? 

After that, the crystal ball gets somewhat murky.

Every major station in Sydney that hasn’t been mentioned above is desperate to do better, or at the very least consolidate their position. Heading the peloton is Nova 96.9 then Triple M, 2UE, 2CH and hit104.12DayFM.

In Melbourne, all the major FM stations are locked in mortal battle for third place after AW and 774. That pack is currently led, by a nose, by hit101.9FoxFM, Mon-Sun and by Triple M Mon-Fri.

With only a point (1.0) separating the six major FM stations all three networks are desperate to kick away from the pack. If anyone and if so, who, will do that is anyone’s guess.

After a year of swapping the lead between them ARN’s 97.3FM leapfrogged Nova 106.9 to to post the biggest leading margin for some time in the Brisbane market. Can it maintain that lead or will Nova come back again?

Find out this and much more…

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