Comment from Peter Saxon

Whatever code of football you follow, you’ll know what a gamechanger looks like on the field. It usually starts with an incredible play from a star player that results in a shift in momentum.

In a contest, momentum is everything. You see it in the body language. Suddenly, the team that was way behind has renewed energy in the belief that they can still win. And the team that thought that the game was in the bag now has doubts and gets the wobbles.

If you’ve been following U.S. politics, you’ve witnessed an incredible momentum shift from Donald Trump’s MAGA Republicans to the Democrats. Just a month ago, Trump, up against a rapidly and visibly ageing Joe Biden was odds on to win a second term as President. Then something remarkable happened. In an unprecedented move, the Democrat party heavies convinced Biden, the sitting President, to abandon his bid for a second term and pass the baton to his little known and untried Vice President, Kamala Harris.

They took an incredible risk, akin to, say, replacing an established radio breakfast team in a major market with interstate talent. Then again, with election day looming (November 5^th) and prospects of a Biden victory fading… well, desperate times call for desperate measures.

The effect of the change of candidate was immediate. Resigned to the probability of a second Trump presidency and the fear that it would turn America into a dictatorship with a Russian style oligarchy ruling class, the future looked grim.  But all of a sudden, the Harris candidacy brought new hope to the party faithful. More than mere “hope” it quickly materialised as millions of dollars that flowed into the campaign coffers as tens of thousands of people volunteered to door knock and spread the word.

More importantly, the polls that had heavily favoured Trump in the crucial swing states began to move towards Harris to the point where she now narrowly leads Trump in most of them. In an aggregate of dozens of major polls published by the highly respected  fivethirtyeight site, Harris now leads Trump nationally by a margin of 3.6 percent compared to Joe Biden who trailed Trump by 3.2 when he quit the race a mere month ago.

Clearly, the momentum has shifted. Trump is now the only geriatric left in the race taking on a much younger, highly educated and articulate woman – one against whom he is clueless as to how to effectively mount a challenge.

The game had changed. But there’s a long way to go till the final whistle.

To succeed, VP Harris will need to win over a significant number of still undecided voters as well as enthuse them enough to take the trouble to actually get out and vote. To do this she would need to overcome a number electoral novelties in a country deeply divided along racial and gender lines. If elected, she would become the USA’s first female President as well as the first person of mixed race born to Jamaican and Indian immigrants. But for now, the momentum is with her and it’s up to her to keep it because the Trump team will go to any lengths to win it back.

Just over decade ago, Kyle and Jackie O famously made a similar impact in the Sydney radio market when they defected from SCA’s 2Day-FM to ARN’s KISS106.5. The momentum shift was almost immediate as their audience followed them to what they saw as friends moving to a new address in the same town. It wasn’t an unprecedented feat. But it was rare – an achievement only previously attributed to John Laws and Alan Jones.

Since then K&J have kept the momentum going and have risen to the top of the Sydney radio ladder in both cumes and shares. What’s more, they’ve been doing well with their nationally networked Hour of Power show. And both are household names thanks to plenty of TV and celebrity page exposure as well as socials.

On paper, they seem a much better bet to succeed in networking their Breakfast show to Melbourne by replacing Jase and Lauren than Kamala Harris becoming President by replacing Joe Biden. But so far, as of the GfK Radio 360 Survey 4, apart from a small rise in cumes they have yet to move the needle on KISS101.1’s share which remains languishing on a 5.9.

The momentum shift that the pair generated in their move to KIIS in Sydney back in 2013, or the kind currently enjoyed by Kamala Harris in the U.S., has yet to materialise in Melbourne. I’m not saying it won’t happen but if a decent ratings uptick doesn’t occur in Radio 360 Survey 5, due out tomorrow morning, there’ll likely be some nervous campers in head office.

One can point to many reasons as to why the K&J Breakfast show won’t work in Melbourne starting with: Because no Breakfast show has ever been successfully networked between Sydney and Melbourne. Or, if they could import a Pom from England such as Christian O’Connell and make it work, why not a known quantity in K&J?

To my mind both those arguments miss the point. Kamala Harris gained instant momentum because the last thing independent and undecided voters wanted was a rematch between two uninspiring old codgers. They desperately wanted someone younger with fresh ideas. Almost anyone that was half competent and on the sunny side of 60 would do.

Having been set a relatively low bar, Harris has exceeded most people’s expectations in terms of her energy, oratory skills, enthusiasm and a killer smile. So far, they like what they see and, more importantly are listening to her.  On the other hand, many have stopped listening Trump and are walking out on his rallies as he does little more than rehash his many grievances and derogatory nick names he bestows on his enemies.

Unlike Christian O’Connell who was an unknown quantity when he first entered the Melbourne market and people were curious about him and willing to give the newcomer a go, the danger that K&J face is that the city is already familiar with them and what their show offers. Listeners, for whatever reason, may see no compelling reason, at this stage, to change from their current station roster.

Peter Saxon – Managing Editor

Main Pic: Kamala Harris, Donald Trump: Shutterstock