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Alan interviewed Prof. Peter Nilsson of Lund University Sweden lauding Sweden's policies on covid19 on 2GB, 12-05-2020.
Reiterating a comment I made earlier on this site if Australia implemented covid19 policies of other countries and if other countries implemented Australia's policy.
If Australia implemented Sweden's policies, we'd have 8365 deaths compared to 97.
Conversely if Sweden implemented Australia's policies, they'd have 38 deaths instead of 3313.
While there is nothing wrong with broadcaster Alan Jones describing the incidents or mortalities of a disease in parts per million, the percentages are confusing and a shift in the decimal point of the parts per million computation seem insignificant.
The other part I don't like is that you cannot compare "apples with oranges". Applying this comparison, you cannot compare the incidence of flu deaths with covid19 deaths. Yes both diseases are contagious. Many survivors of covid19 say it is worse than the flu.
Both policies of Sweden and Australia have had a significant decrease in the mortality rate. In the early days of the covid19 epidemic, epidemiologists in Australia reported infections in the order of 1.5 million. Why 1.5 million? While the epidemiologists did not say when this would occur, it is known that uncontrolled spread follows an exponential equation.
Anybody with a knowledge of year 12 mathematics and/or first year university statistics can apply this knowledge and develop the models based on data available from site covid19data.com.au. The data to calculate the model is based on a particular state's daily incidents of infection. I chose NSW's.
I will not publish my models and or calculations. Suffice to say that if there were no policies to control the spread of a disease, you'd be shocked at the daily incidents of infection for NSW. Thankfully after the 26th March 2020, the policies for incidents of infection in NSW clearly indicated a linear trend downwards.
Consequently, if there were no policies to control the spread of infection, our health system would not be able to cope with the incidents of infections especially if the patients required treatment. That is true if there were no policies in controlling the spread of the disease.
Clearly from the information, I am lucky to be living in Australia. The policies and societal mores of one country in establishing how to "live/cope/control with" the covid19 virus explain why the methods of controlling the spread of the virus produce different results.
I have made my point elsewhere on this site of the creeping utilitarianistic attitude which places economics above the number of lives lost. The deceased can't come back and no-one will have on their tombstone or plaque, "..in loving memory of 'person' who died to put her/his life for the economy...". Economies can come back though.
Now as Australia proceeds with rebuilding the economy, let's hope and pray that there are no spikes in incidents of infection and that we are not overwhelmed by too many spikes.
It is true that Alan Jones is one of the greatest broadcasters in Australia. His analysis and research on topics is thorough and consistent.
However in this case for arguing for Sweden's implementation of controlling the spread of the covid-19 disease are incorrect.
In addition, Alan's criticism of mathematical modelling throughout his broadcasting career is not correct. It is true that the model is only as good as the assumptions built into a model. The adage is garbage in garbage out. But mathematical modelling has been available since the invention of the calculus by Newton and Leibniz. Mathematical modelling also applies to statistical modelling used by epidemiologists as a planning tool and to test whether medicines are efficacious.
Like the PM and Premiers who relied on the experts, Alan had to rely on experts in order to reduce his workload. I wish Alan Jones good health.
Thank you,
Anthony of analytical Belfield
Calculations:
Based on data as at 13-05-2020 at 0000.
If Australia adopted the Sweden's covid-19 policies:
No deaths = pop(Aus)/pop(UK)*deaths(Sweden) = 25499884/10099265*3313 = 8365
If Sweden adopted Australia's covid-19 policies
No deaths = pop(Sweden)/pop(Aus)*deaths(Aus) = 10099265/25499884*97 = 38
Data:
Country, pop, density, deaths
Sweden: 10099265, 25, 3313
Australia: 25499884, 3, 97
Source:
https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/population-by-country/
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/?utm_campaign=homeAdUOA?Si
Commentators such as Alan Jones have been admiring of the way Sweden was handling the coronavirus. Alan interviewed Prof. Peter Nilsson of Lund University Sweden lauding Sweden's policies on covid19 on 2GB, 12-05-2020.
In an article in the AFR, 03-06-2020 at 1843, "Sweden's top epidemiologist has admitted his strategy to fight COVID-19 resulted in too many deaths, after persuading his country to avoid a strict lockdown", https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/wall-st-trends-higher-amid-broad-gains-20200603-p54ywr - note the dynamic nature of the page means the article may or may not appear the next day. The same article appears at Bloomberg, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-03/man-behind-sweden-s-virus-strategy-says-he-got-some-things-wrong.
The no-lockdown policy that Alan promoted appears to have had no benefit to the economy, https://www.ft.com/content/93105160-dcb4-4721-9e58-a7b262cd4b6e and is in a deep economic crisis.
Just as we are critical of economists acting like epidemiologists, the same could be said of epidemiologists in Sweden acting like economists, Commentators such as Alan Jones have been admiring of the way Sweden was handling the coronavirus.
The no-lockdown policy that Alan promoted appears to have had no benefit to the economy, https://www.ft.com/content/93105160-dcb4-4721-9e58-a7b262cd4b6e .
Just as we are critical of economists acting like epidemiologists, the same could be said of epidemiologists in Sweden acting like economists.
Even though Alan is no longer presenting his breakfast program, we have to be equally critical and not take commentators as 'gospel' in the media in general.
Thank you,
Anthony of researching Belfield