Does MTR have the right stuff to win over Melbourne?

It’s the biggest launch of a new station in Melbourne since vega, perhaps even Nova and maybe 3MP itself. Yet Melbourne’s new talk station MTR 1377 isn’t actually new, rather it’s a comprehensive format change for the lowly rated 3MP, whose license and frequency the new venture between it’s owners and 2GB’s will use.

In any case, MTR has the potential to change the Melbourne radio landscape forever. Even if it is mildly successful it could split the over 40’s talk audience three ways between itself, market leader 3AW and third placed ABC774. Such a split could reduce 3AW’s accustomed dominance or even pull it back into second place behind FOX FM. Or what odds the unthinkable for 3AW, that MTR is more than merely mildly successful and actually comes close or beats AW?

Such an outcome would not only have a huge impact on the Melbourne commercial market but also have implications for the Fairfax network as whole. With its Sydney station 2UE struggling against 2GB since it lost its stars, it can ill-afford to have its best performing station go down the same path.

But this time things are different. MTR weren’t able to entice any of the big names from 3AW. Even Steve Price was poached from 2UE, not having been heard in Melbourne for a decade.

Some pundits argue that the new station won’t be “Melbourne” enough. For example Karl Quinn – admittedly writing in the Fairfax press – wrote, “There are 19 unique program slots in MTR’s line-up. Of those, only five will be hosted from Melbourne, though they do include the key slots of breakfast (Steve Price), morning (Steve Vizard) and drive (A Current Affair reporter Martin King).

Here’s your chance to be an I told you so by putting your prediction to posterity. How do you think MTR will go?

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