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Australia will soon become the only English speaking country in the world to not have a deregulated broadcasting sector. With the US, Canada and New Zealand having already deregulated at different points last century and the UK about to, it would be unwise to think that Australia will not also deregulate. What makes me believe it will be sooner rather than later is three points.
The Productivity Commision released a report urging the Government to deregulate ASAP (which the government was suppossed to respond to by the end of last year). The report suggested many ways of doing this, but the two points I see as crucial to deregulation are freeing up spare spectrum and relegating the ABA to matters of content only. In my opinion The ABA has made planning decisions, especially with radio, that have no consistancy or transparancy in radio markets accross Australia. The Broadcasting act is a hodgepodge of conflicting paragraphs and sentences that as a whole act, can be interpretated in so many ways. This allows it to hand down rulings with no clearly defined set of guidelines, but whatever there own interpretation of the act is at any particular point. The only way of challenging an ABA ruling is through the courts at great expense. There are hundreds of frequencies around Australia locked up because the of the ABA's particular use of section 23 of the act.
The second point which leads me to believe we are heading towards deregulation is a likely free trade agreement with the USA. The Prime Minister wants this to be one of his legacies before he rides off into the sunset and I think that "Barriers to entry to broadcasting markets" is a wall that will need to be knocked down in order for the yanks to accept it.
The third point is that Macquarie Bank have launched a Communcations infrastructure Fund using as a base the old NTA tower assets. Macquarie bank seem to have an influential lobby presence, especially with this government and these towers are going to need more "things" hanging of them in order to maintain growth.
I also believe that the new Media ownership laws will pass this year because of the above reasons. The minor parties might tinker at the edge, such as protecting regional markets from undue concentration, but I still believe they will pass. Deregulation will happen sooner if they do.
They are my predictions for the next 12 to 18 months.
Only time will tell
2003 should be an exciting year for Radio! Tough competition is forcing Stations to look at how they go about getting their listeners, and keeping them. Radio will encourage more music personalities rather than time and temp jocks. Networks will realise that the best way to win the ratings game, and listeners respect is to keep it 'Live and Local' 24/7, and the new Gold Coast station will hopefuly be a "Nova" style station. Rural journalists will have to report on the breaking of the drought, and Michael Jackson may actually put out a song that radio will play this year! ;)
I don't think Derryn has worked at 2PK Parkes yet. He could end up there in 2003.
Perhaps this year the ABA will get serious with policing the BSA - and not just for commercial stations - how about those community (free spectrum) and narrowcast (cheap specturm)stations that breach their licence conditions at every turn and try to be de facto commercial stations?
I reckon 6ix will be sold to owners of nova93.7
austereo to merge with rg capital
2sm to be sold to southern cross .we all seem to know 3ak/3mp
will go to singo.I still belive austereo will strike a deal
with canwest radio in nz.clear channel will buyout apn
if cross media laws are not changed.
Expect 2GB to go up, if they go anywhere at all. There was a bit of talk last year that the listeners might be scratching their heads and still deciding between 2UE and 2GB, but I think not.
Alan Jone's ability to create publicity and the awareness of 2GB that followed, and do it so rapidly, demonstrates how people create publicity, not products. 2UE may be 'Talking Sydney', but Sydney isn't talking about them. However, John Laws is what will prevent 2UE from falling down to a 3AK level of ratings.
Speaking of 3AK, a station that until recently I was very fond of, it too needs to understand that people are more important than the station itself to create publicity. Since I was a kid I've read the same argument over and over again.....if only 3AK advertised, it would make inroads. Rubbish! What 3AK needs is credibility and it can't make it on advertising alone (let alone the fact they can't afford to advertise anyway). It needs the endorsement of other media outlets. It needs PR (and good PR at that, not constant reports about the sacking of the week).
Hinch and Kennett gave the station really helpful publicity and each time, figures like 3 and 4 per cent ratings were being seen for the first time in years.
A hot little radio advertiser in Melbourne also indicates the power of turning the owners of a business into celebrities themselves, in the same style as Virgin Blue's Sir Richard Branson or Microsoft's Bill Gates - namely Chris and Marie's Plant Farms. Their approach to promotion has resulted in the expansion of their business.
To get heaps of helpful publicity, there's no more sure way than if 3AK were given a celebrity owner - namely John Singleton. The bunch of suits that own 3AK right now can stop dreaming that they add any publicity value to the station whatsoever - which is a bitch considering 3AK need publicity 1000 times more than merely keeping overheads low.
2003 will be the year of 774 ABC Melbourne. If Lynne Haultain was being moved off the station completely, there may be been a backlash against new breakfast presenter Red Symons. I am betting no backlash will happen. 774 are wise to fight to keep their new leadership over 3AW. For the same reason as in Sydney. 3AW may be 'Talking Melbourne', but Melbourne is talking about Red!
Mix 101.1 is trying really hard to get Melbournians to remember their new name, including labelling their breakfast show 'The Mixed Bag' and their news service 'The News Mix'. 2003 will reveal whether people are confused about the name, or are simply rejecting the name. I have doubts about the name primarily because it's a 'copy and paste' name from Sydney, a similar approach to the way retail brand names are often line-extended, with very poor results.
Finally, Triple M may be about to shift listening habits by introducing talk radio for young people on the FM band at nights, just as they have successfully taken the footy calling, once the traditional domain of talk radio, and made it part of a male-targeted format. Good luck to Phil O' Neil.
In 2003 I predict the complete crash of the Caralis network. It is bad business for a company to own a station in the biggest radio market that rates sooo poorly. Sydney wide commercial radio licenses aren’t cheap. Southern Cross will likely buy 2SM and challenge Singo’s 2CH in the Oldies market. I don’t see any future in another “talk” station. The market is already saturated with 2 superpowers of talk.
DMG will continue to grow and gobble up any licenses that are free. There will be a backlash in the regional markets against Caralis’s and DMG’s “Hubing” of AM “talk” stations. Especially when Caralis puts 2nd rate jocks on at his 2SM hub.
The government will start to consider the release of more regional licenses to give variety to the regional areas and the will start to consider yet another round of narrowcast regulation relaxing which will be very welcome to regional markets.
All in all a very exciting year in radio ahead.
I really do think that 3AK is doomed now. There seems to be not a lot of thought going into decisions there. Losing Kennett not such a worry but Hinch was doing ok just needed some support the overnighters well they were pretty good really and getting on with it.
Derryn will pop up somewhere I would think, Kennett will rear his ugly head somewhere well paid with no real responsibilty and Greg Evans should be heard nationally with a up tempo music show or perhaps back to TV music shows.
I dont think Caralis will sell or buy DMG.
I think we should use our real names here.
Jobs at this station will perhaps stay as they are all is pretty stable here at the moment. Unlike the commercial stations in Darwin I predict some tough times for them and the ABC here needs to take a long look at itself as well.
Hopeing that 2003 will see more Australian content and more local input and lots less automation shifts and even less networking and some more mid-dawn shifts as well I really miss em.
Cheers happy 2003
Less automation as lots of people have congratulated us for staying live and local over Christmas period, with storms, black outs, traffic updates etc, is Grant Broadcasters live now?-it was all audio-titanic- vaulted when I was with them. A little bit of sense needed with crappy economic rationalism and depersonifying a very personal medium,:do Merrick and Rosso take the mickey out of Muslim cultures as well as our Christian culture-lets have that balance-great skit on traffic offences coming up......oh i'm only wearing this towell coz i'm going to the beach oh officer my car doesnt need wheels- its got flying carpet turbo lifters. nothing offensive going on, just laugh we need the funnies- Club Veg did plenty in the 80s of ripper satire and geeeeeeeez it made my nights holding the radio over my head in Gympie QLD to hear 2SM in its bad old days. I predict comedy music will win in the cities and in the country and provincial areas live radio will hopefully make a huge comeback. Train the young jox in the country and then let em move up knowing theyre interacting with a good live audience...
Just a quick word from me in reply to Rod Johnson. I don't moderate the comments in this forum. I have, however, written all the software that runs on the server to make it all work. All the best to everyone for the new year. Kind Regards AndyG
I predict Martin/Molloy will come back on air... they won't... but they should
As a former employee of the caralis network I can say that at least with his country stations they are live for 10 hours a day and one that's 18 hours a day live. WHere in this industry do you find radio stations like that. It is only 2sm that is bringing the place down. Bill advertise the station I love and give it some credibility PLEASE!!!!!!!!!!
In the words of Peter Finch, "I'm as mad as hell and I'm not gonna take it any more". We are crippling the industry with networking and not allowing the next generation of movers and shakers to build on an impressive radio past. Country radio stations no longer exist and relay towers prevail. On a recent visit to a country station, only one programme was live. The remaining 21 hours on any weekday was off satellite. After years of community radio building up skills, finally breaking into commercial (only for that station to go broke and fold) and after knocking on many doors across Australia only to be told that 'everything comes from our HUB' has given me a shady view of the sector. I only hope that networking proves not as profitable as they would like it to be and that radio is opened up so that country stations truly benefit the residents in their area. Right now, they don't. My prediction for 2003/04... Dark days ahead but they will be numbered as more seasoned professionals in the sector ask the same question, 'where is my industry headed?'
Re post 7 Jan - I'd love to hear the Bill Caralis show. He'll be able to tell us about constructing buildings Greek style, concreting your front, back and sideyards, and painting it green, maybe even a few pillars to make your home look like the Parthenon! I can't forget the concrete lions.