Analysis by Steve Ahern.

I flagged it in my Trends Report from the recent NABShow. Now the results are in.

They show that changing radio’s measurement threshold captures more listening and helps radio better communicate its advantages against analytics from other media. The change in measurement will help radio companies better comunicate their mass market and  niche market benefits to advertisers.

What happened

American radio changed its Nielsen radio survey measurement threshold from 5 minutes to 3 minutes at the end of last year to more accurately capture radio listening.

The result

A 15% increase in reported listening overall, giving radio increased sales leverage against the measurement methods of other media.

The battle of metrics

Marketers and media buyers have embraced the big numbers captured by digital measurement methods in recent years and funnelled increasing amounts of advertising money into ‘new’ or ‘digital’ media. Those numbers have been used by digital media to position themselves in a positive position against what they have labelled ‘old’ and ‘legacy’ media, amongst other pejorative terms.

In marketing, if you can positively position yourself in the minds of your potential customers you will do well. If you can combine that positive positioning for your own brand with marketing tactics that position your competitor in a negative manner with potential customers, then you will do even better. Social and search media companies, the so called ‘digital giants,’ have done this very successfully, while existing media companies have been far to slow to realise what was happening and too slow to counter the negative positioning promulgated by digital media.

This latest measurement methodology change is more than just a way to combat the big numbers of digital media, it also opens up a number of questions about measurement equivalencies that should prompt a discussion about the real return on investment for money spent on digital media.

The American move to revise its radio measurement methodology is part of a long overdue fightback.

Comparing digital analytics with responsible media measurement metrics is not easy. Because the measurement systems are not the same there is plenty of room for argument and debate over the numbers. Let’s use a ‘pub test’ approach to get some clarity.

I am going to use the term ‘responsible media’ as shorthand to describe radio, tv and professional news companies, because our media have tried to apply responsible editorial and measurement techniques. On the editorial side, we check first, then publish, while social and search media (especially now with AI) publish first then, maybe, check later.  We value credibility and transparency in measurement while our competitors value opacity and their numbers are not always credible.

Consider the measurement thresholds.

In America, to be counted as listening in any quarter hour, a listener had to listen for 5 consecutive minutes. Now it is 3 minutes.

To be counted as valid listeners in any quarter hour, Australian listeners need to have listened to the majority of a quarter hour (more than 7 minutes) before their ‘vote’ is counted.

Radio programmers have long known that some listeners listen for long periods of time, while others drop in and out of listening as they get in and out of their cars or hop between stations to find the song they like best. Radio is not an ‘old’ or ‘dying’ medium. It is as vibrant as ever, but the message is not being sold well enough. In recent years CRA has worked hard to refine the message and update the methodology, but unfortunately the digital giants continue to push the ‘radio/tv/newspapers are dying’ message and every time someone googles ‘should I advertise on radio’ they get an answer that compares radio measurement unfavourably with ‘digital’ measurement, usually quoting google and youtube (a google company) statistics out of self-interest.

So let’s do some numbers.

To qualify to be counted as seeing a post or video on Facebook, Meta’s threshold is three seconds for posts and two seconds for video. What! Would anyone retain information about the topic or the product being advertised after two seconds?

Radio’s more conservative measurement approach has been seven minutes, not seconds. If we measured all the people who listened to radio for a minimum of three seconds the numbers would be much greater.

Consider ‘impressions.’ A facebook impression is triggered when someone sees a post or a video. If they scroll back to see it again it is counted as a second ‘impression.’ Using the same concept, if I flick off a station to find another song, but flick back after a few seconds to my original station, could I be considered as two ‘impressions’ for that station?

A YouTube view is registered after 30 seconds.

A Spotify stream of a song is registered after 30 seconds.

On TikTok, a person watching is counted right from the moment the video plays, with further thresholds at 2 and 6 seconds. Is that enough time to imprint an advertising brand into the memory of the TikTok viewer, or is it just a method to inflate numbers without delivering any real ROI for an advertiser?

Let’s consider this radio listening proposition:

I listen to one radio station for 8 minutes and during that time I hear one song, an information voice break lasting about 45 seconds, and a block of five 30 second ads. Then I switch around to three other stations for about 40 seconds each, back to my original station for 40 seconds to find a song I like and then settle on the final station for the rest of the quarter hour.

• I am counted as one listener in radio measurement.
• My time spent listening is 8 minutes to one station.

Let’s recut it using social media methods.

• I have listened to each item for more than 30 seconds so, using Youtube methodology I have consumed 7 content items from the radio ‘platform’
• Using TikTok methodology of ‘watch minutes’ I have generated 8 ‘listen minutes’ to the radio platform for the first content creator, then an additional 7 listen minutes for three more radio platform content creators
• Ilistened to one song ‘stream’
• Because I switched back to my first station I have generated another impression for that station, and I have also generated two impressions for the final station I listened to for the rest of the quarter hour
• This does not even consider ‘engagement,’ which could be measured by talkback, texts and social interactions with radio hosts and would likely be more valuable than a like or a smiley emoji

Wow! That looks much better than one listener with 8 minutes of TSL. It communicates the real experience that a listener gets when listening to radio in a much more dynamic way than the tired old, false, attack-marketing impression of radio as an old dying medium.

In radio’s noble quest to be responsible and credible, it does itself no favours against the flood of baffling measurement numbers and definitions generated by digital analytics. Of course search and social media sells advertising and delivers innovative engaging content. But does it really generate enough ROI for its advertisers to justify the money spent, or are many advertisers just chasing numbers that don’t do their business much good in the long run.

Mark Riston has called it ‘a Tsunami of bullshit’. I agree.

Radio, television and responsible news companies have the runs on the board for delivering real ROI for advertisers with a combination of meaningful metrics, enticing creative and responsible accountability.

The Details and Results

The first thing to note about the new US results is that there is not more radio listening and the stations with increased figures did not get more share of real audience. The new methodology just captures more accurately what has always been happening.

The results of the latest US Nielsen people-meter survey show that talk stations had one of the biggest the biggest increases. Let’s analyse this. We all know that people switch to talk stations at the top of the hour for longer credible news bulletins. This was never able to be measured. Now it is. We also know that ltalk isteners stay with talk when they are engaged with the content, but when an interview ends they switch around chasing a moment of rest through music or a different viewpoint from another talk station.

We also know that when a song comes on that the listener doesn’t like, they check other stations for alternatives, but return to their favourite station if there is nothing better. The old rules of programming still work, but the measurement methods are different.

So what are the results from the latest US Nielsen new people measurement methods?

1. Talk radio is up
2. Sport radio is down, a factor of big audiences for live calls but smaller audiences for sport chat when there is no live game
3. Christian radio is up, maybe reflecting the backlash as people seek ‘nice’ content to counter the effect of the Trump chaos in America
4. Radio cume and average quarter hour listening is up
5. There is growth in average audience across all day parts and formats

The new methodology was introduced from survey 1 this year, and average audiences to all radio stations have been captured more accurately since then. Almost all formats have increased audience, except live sport, as shown in the chart below with big increases for talk and contemporary Christian formats, as well as Spanish, Rhythmic and Hot AC.

Cume is up 9% overall and TSL is up 5%.

The bottom line.

• Radio still has a mass audience
• Radio companies now have a way to reach niche audiences through podcasts
• Radio listeners still listen longer and more attentively
• Radio has more TSL and more real listeners to offer advertisers than social and search media publishers
• Radio is more engaging than online search and social publishers, and so are live-to-air and OTT video broadcasters and news publishers
• Radio has now embraced podcasts to capture niche audiences and can now deliver both mass and niche advertising solutions

The media advertising landscape changed long ago, but equilibrium is only now in sight as advertisers start to think about the right mix of spending on established responsible media and new online media.

A shake up is coming. Audio must champion its position to take advantage of the new opportunities. It is well positioned to do so.